[E338]iPhone, therefore I am|经济学人
本文音频及原文摘自杂志The Economist《经济学人》2016年第5期，Business版块。
Apple
Among the firm’s biggest difficulties is its past success
Jan 30th 2016 | SAN FRANCISCO
STEVE JOBS once visited an apple orchard['ɔːtʃəd][果园;果树林] while on a fruitarian diet[果食主义者;靠水果饮食为生], and it gave him the idea for the name of the company that he, Steve Wozniak and Ronald Wayne went on to found. Jobs thought the name would make the company seem quirky[古怪的;离奇的;诡诈的], approachable and fun. Its popular, highly profitable products have helped make it the world’s most valuable company for nearly five years[广受欢迎的高利润产品使它得以成为世界上最有价值的公司将近五年的时间]. However, questions are growing about its shelf life[保质期;贮藏寿命;闲置时间;适用期].
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On January 26th Apple announced profits for its most recent quarter of $18.4 billion, more than any listed firm[上市公司] worldwide has yet made in a three-month period. However, the good news was overshadowed by Apple’s warning of a sharp fall in revenues in the current quarter[当前季度收入的大幅下降让这一好消息黯然失色]. In the past six months its shares have fallen by over 20%, more than double the decline in the S&P 500 index[标准普尔500指数], on fears that sales of the iPhone, which provides most of the firm’s revenues and profits, have peaked[达到峰值;最高点]. Is it only a matter of time before Apple (worth around $550 billion) is overtaken[赶上,压倒] by Alphabet, Google’s parent ($500 billion)?
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In its rise to greatness, Apple has repeatedly shrugged off bouts of[一阵阵;发作;来回一次] panic among investors, who have suddenly convinced themselves that its glory days[光辉岁月] are over. The most recent was three years ago, amid fears of rising competition from other smartphone and tablet makers. But each time Apple has bounced back[反弹;迅速恢复活力] and gone on to greater highs, the job of topping its most recent achievement has become harder[超越现在所取得成就的任务更加艰难了].
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▷ shrug off
【释义】
to treat something as if it is not important or not a problem
对…满不在乎;对…不予理睬
摆脱;抖去;耸肩表示蔑视;扭身脱掉衣服
The stock market shrugged off the economic gloom and rose by 1.5%.
股票市场没有受到经济不景气的影响，上涨了1.5%。
You're a father and you can't simply shrug off your responsibility for your children.
你是一位父亲，不能推卸对孩子们的责任。
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Beating the 231m iPhones that Apple sold in the fiscal year[财政年度] to the end of September will be a formidable task. The smartphone market is ever more saturated['sætʃəreɪtɪd][饱和的;渗透的;深颜色的]. Worldwide sales of phones costing more than $190 will grow by just 3% this year, reckons['rek(ə)n][估计;计算;猜想,料想] Strategy Analytics, compared with 64% in 2011. (The average selling price for the iPhone is $691, although carriers[运营商] usually help subsidise the cost[补贴费用].)
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▷ formidable ['fɔːmɪdəb(ə)l; fɔː'mɪd-]
【释义】
a) causing you to have fear or respect for something or someone because they are large, powerful or difficult
b) What do the national debt, your old gym teacher, and your mother-in-law have in common? They're all formidable — that is, they inspire fear and respect thanks to their size, or special ability, or unusual qualities. (Or possibly all three in the case of your mother-in-law.)
adj. 可怕的;令人敬畏的;难对付的;强大的;艰难的
a formidable obstacle/task
令人生畏的障碍／任务
a formidable adversary/enemy/opponent
难对付的敌手／劲敌／强大的对手
a formidable intellect
令人敬畏的知识分子
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Meanwhile, the global economy—and China in particular, upon which Apple depends for a growing share of its sales[(在中国的)销售额的比重越来越大]—is looking more fragile['frædʒaɪl][脆的;易碎的]. Recently several Asian suppliers have been sharing stark warnings[严重/严峻警告] that orders for iPhone parts, such as chips and cameras, are down. Currency fluctuations[货币价格波动;币值波动] have made iPhones significantly more expensive in some markets, like Japan and Australia, which could put them out of reach for new buyers[让新卖家望而却步;遥不可及].
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Sales of iPhones are likely to decline by around 10% this year, according to analysts. But then what? Loyalty among its users is high[用户忠诚度比较高]; perhaps 90% go on to buy another one. According to an analysis by Sanford C. Bernstein, another research outfit[另一研究/调查机构], if such users upgrade to a new iPhone every two years, in 2017 Apple will sell them another 185m, not including sales to new users. The installed base of iPhone owners (and thus users of iTunes and Apple’s other revenue-earning services[盈利服务]) could easily grow to 534m in 2017, up by 13% from 2015.
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▷ installed base
【释义】
(idiomatic, business) The number of units of a system or product that are currently in use.
用户群;安装基础/用户数
There is a large discrepancy between the installed base of a mobile platform and the corresponding applications.
移动平台的安装基数与对应的应用数量之间存在极大的落差。
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The iPhone’s future will depend a great deal on how compelling[引人注目的;强制的;激发兴趣的] its next incarnation, expected in September, will be. Cheaper versions can also help boost sales[促销;推销;提高销量]. The lower-priced iPhone 5c, which Apple launched in 2013, enhanced the firm’s appeal in China. Tim Bajarin of Creative Strategies, a research firm, thinks that Apple may offer an even more affordable iPhone for the Indian market. There is currently much excitement in India about Apple’s plans to open shops there. But finding suitable locations, and dealing with the red tape[繁文缛节;官样文章] involved in opening them, will not be easy. And only a small fraction of India’s population has the means to buy even a cheap iPhone.
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▷ incarnation [ɪnkɑː'neɪʃ(ə)n]
【释义】
Incarnation is the embodiment of a god on earth. Or — when it comes to reincarnation: if you are a garbage collector in this life, you might get to be royalty in your next incarnation.
n. 化身;道成肉身;典型
He believes that he was a Roman warrior in a previous incarnation.
他认为自己前世是一名罗马勇士。
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So, Apple is under pressure to produce another hit product. Sales of iPads have wilted[wɪlt][枯萎;畏缩;衰弱], and Apple’s watch, released last year, has not sold as well as optimists had predicted. Its answer to disrupting television, Apple TV, has proved merely a discretional plaything[玩具] for wealthy consumers who want a slicker interface and do not mind spending more on films and TV episodes à la carte[(法)按菜单点菜]. Apple faces plenty of roadblocks[路障;障碍] in making a success of its long-rumoured electric car, which it is reportedly hoping to complete by 2020. Recently the head of that project, Steve Zadesky, left.
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▷ discretional [dɪ'skrɛʃənəl]
【释义】having or using the ability to act or decide according to your own discretion or judgment
adj. 任意的;自由决定的
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As an investment, Apple is surprisingly inexpensive. Its sharestrade at[在…买东西;在…进行交易] about 10.4 times forecast earnings[预期盈利;收益预测;盈余预测], excluding cash, compared with Alphabet and Facebook, which trade at 21.4 and 33 times respectively. That is because many perceive[察觉,感觉;理解;认知] it as a hardware company—vulnerable, like Hollywood studios, to product hits and flops. Apple is trying to change that image and become perceived more as a services company, with stable recurring revenue[常续性营收]. Its services division, which includes its app store and music offering, has huge sales, of around $20 billion a year. That business will only increase as the number of users expands and spends more in the Apple ecosystem[生态系统]. So long as it stays fresh in the eyes of consumers, Apple will be able to prove the sceptics[怀疑论者;持怀疑态度的人] wrong—again.
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【相关参考】
1月26日晚，苹果发布了该公司2015年-2016财年截至2015年12月26日的第一财季业绩数据。报告显示，苹果第一财季营收为759亿美元，比上年同期的746亿美元增长1.7%；净利润为184亿美元，比上年同期的180亿美元增长1.9%。苹果第一财季营收和净利润均创历史新高，但增速已明显放缓。
标准普尔500指数英文简写为S&P 500 Index，是记录美国500家上市公司的一个股票指数。这个股票指数由标准普尔公司创建并维护。
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